“Enjoy Retirement”: Trump Advisor Takes Victory Lap as Iowa Called for Trump Despite Polling Surprise
REUTERS/Marco Bello
On election night, a senior advisor to Donald Trump’s campaign, Chris LaCivita, celebrated early as more states were called in Trump’s favor, including the battleground state of Iowa. Taking to the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), LaCivita posted a blunt message directed at well-known pollster Ann Selzer, saying, “Enjoy retirement,” alongside a screenshot of a 2016 FiveThirtyEight article that had hailed Selzer as “The best pollster in politics.”
Selzer, a respected Iowa pollster with a reputation for accuracy, had gained widespread recognition after correctly forecasting Trump’s victories in Iowa in both 2016 and 2020. However, in a surprising twist this year, Selzer’s polling for the 2024 race showed Vice President Kamala Harris with a lead over Trump, an outcome that went against the state’s recent voting trends. This prediction sparked attention and speculation in political circles, given Selzer’s track record and Iowa’s history as a bellwether for conservative candidates, told Newsweek.
As the night unfolded, multiple news outlets confirmed that Trump had indeed won Iowa, contradicting Selzer’s prediction. Axios reporter Alex Thompson also weighed in, posting on X, “Ann Selzer is a great pollster but appears she was off this time. AP calls Iowa for Trump.” Thompson’s comment acknowledged Selzer’s generally solid reputation while noting the inaccuracy of her latest forecast.
For Trump’s campaign, the win in Iowa served as an early boost in morale on election night, reinforcing the former president’s standing in a state he had previously secured by comfortable margins. LaCivita’s comment aimed to underscore Trump’s dominance in Iowa, portraying Selzer’s misstep as a symbolic victory over the polling industry, which Trump’s campaign has often criticized as biased or flawed. This early win in Iowa bolstered Trump’s momentum and gave his team added confidence as results continued to roll in from other key states.
Selzer’s polling miscalculation highlights the inherent challenges in forecasting election outcomes, especially in a politically polarized environment where voter turnout and shifting demographics add layers of complexity. For Selzer, an unexpected result in Iowa raises questions about the dynamics of the 2024 race and the unique challenges of polling in swing states. Although respected for her past accuracy, even the most skilled pollsters face difficulties when predicting outcomes amid rapidly evolving voter sentiments.
Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign seized on Iowa’s result as a symbolic win over skeptics and critics. The victory lap taken by LaCivita reflects a broader narrative within Trump’s team, one that often questions the reliability of pre-election polling, particularly when polls predict outcomes that differ from Trump’s track record of success in traditionally conservative regions.
The back-and-forth on X between Trump’s campaign advisor and reporters underscores the highly charged atmosphere of election night, with the accuracy of polling and predictions under intense scrutiny. Trump’s Iowa win, against the odds presented by Selzer’s polling, reaffirmed his campaign’s confidence as they looked toward victories in other battleground states.
As the night continued, Trump’s team leaned into the moment, using the Iowa result to further solidify their narrative of resilience against unfavorable predictions. LaCivita’s post, though brief, captured the confidence Trump’s advisors felt as they began to celebrate an election night that had, at least in Iowa, turned in their favor.
